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It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.