Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
